Searching for USDA’s Loss Function, Tuesday, June 14th at 3 pm Eastern
USDA Economists is hosting the presentation of ”Searching for USDA’s Loss Function” by Chad Fiechter, a Ph.D. Candidate at Purdue University. This research, co-authored with Todd Kuethe (Purdue U.) and Siddhartha S. Bora (Ohio State U.), considers sources of bias in the price forecasts in the USDA's World Agricultural Demand and Supply Estimates (WASDE). Previous research suggests that the livestock price forecasts of WASDE, when evaluated under the rational expectation hypothesis, are technically irrational. However, this research searches for the range of `technical’ bias, where the price forecasts can be considered rational. When the WASDE milk price forecasters are assumed to prefer to under-predict, as opposed to over-predict, the WASDE milk price forecast can be considered rational.
The presentation will be made via Zoom with link information below at Tuesday, June 14th at 3 pm Eastern
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