Economic assessment of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Brazil

USDA Economists Seminar, Sept. 26, 2022,

Tais De Menendez, Ph.D. Candidate

Colorado State University


Economic assessment of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Brazil

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Overview

This study employs a computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling framework in tandem with results from an epidemiological model to evaluate the economic consequences of a hypothetical FMD outbreak in Brazil. FMD-induced production losses, government increased expenditure for outbreak eradication, and restrictions on international trade of livestock and meat products are applied as exogenous shocks in the economic model. Results show negative impacts on Brazilian livestock sectors’ output and trade diversions from Brazil for beef and pork. Simulated welfare losses in Brazil range from $132 million to $271 million depending on the severity of trade restrictions imposed, corresponding to seven times the amount the Brazilian government spends on animal disease prevention yearly. Results highlight the importance of maintaining the health of Brazilian herds, especially when considering Brazil's position as one of the main meat suppliers in the international market.


About the Presenter - Taís Menezes

Taís is a PhD student in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at Colorado State University. Taís is also a researcher of the Agricultural Policy team at the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics in Brazil. She studied Economic Sciences at the Federal University of São Paulo and holds a master’s and a PhD degree in Applied Economics from the University of São Paulo. Taís was a visiting researcher at Colorado State University from August 2021 to May 2022 under a Fulbright scholarship. Her research is focused on agricultural policy, animal health economics, and international trade.


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