Value of Resilience in Agricultural Supply Chains, Thursday, Sept. 24, 10am

USDA OFFICE OF RISK ASSESSMENT AND COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS

and the

USDA ECONOMISTS GROUP

SCIENCE, POLICY AND RISK FORUM

“Value of Resilience in Agricultural Supply Chains”

Dr. Igor Linkov, Environmental Laboratory, U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, and Carnegie Mellon University

Dr. Ashley Hungerford, Office of the Chief Economist, Discussant

September 24, 2020, 10:00 to 11:30 am

VIA ZOOM – Registration link at end of flyer

Agricultural supply chains are critical for societal function but can be easily disrupted by natural disasters or other shocks, such as pandemic infections. There has been an unprecedented degree of automation and connected business operations with the rise of new information technology tools that increased efficiency of supply chains. At the same time, resulting dependency upon a network of complex, interconnected cyber and sociotechnical systems, each of which having its own vulnerabilities to perturbation, resulted in the decreased resilience of supply chains in general and specifically in ag supply chains. The COVID-19 pandemic has clearly shown the need to balance efficiency and resilience in future supply chains.

Dr. Igor Linkov will present an overview of resilience and risk within complex, interrelated systems and the development of a framework to manage and measure system resilience. He will present tools to assess the resilience of supply and value chains and present a quantitative example to illustrate application of these tools for transportation networks, including impact of lack of resilience on GDP and other major economic indicators. He will discuss the implications of his work for evaluating and managing agricultural supply and value chains.

Dr. Igor Linkov is the Risk and Decision Science Focus Lead at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. He is an Adjunct Professor of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University. He is developing resilience assessment and management approaches for infrastructure and cyber systems. He was working on developing the USACE Resilience Roadmap and is part of several Interagency Committees and Working Groups tasked with developing resilience metrics and resilience management approaches. He has published widely on environmental policy, environmental modeling, and risk analysis. He recently co-authored a book, “The Science and Practice of Resilience,” and has over 50 publications in peer reviewed literature on resilience. Dr. Linkov is a Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) Fellow and is recipient of SRA Chauncey Starr, Outstanding Practitioner and Distinguished Educator Awards. He is a Fellow with AAAS and recipient of multiple other awards and medals from the US Army and DOD.

Some of Dr. Linkov’s relevant papers for this presentation are below:

  • Changing the resilience paradigm https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2227

  • The Need to Recognize Concepts that Characterize Systems Facing Threats https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/risa.13577?af=R

  • The case for value chain resilience https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/MRR-08-2019-0353/full/html#:~:text=A%20narrower%20focus%20on%20supply,absorption%2C%20recovery%20and%20adaptation%20phases.

  • Lack of resilience in transportation networks: Economic implications https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920920306064

  • Tiered approach to resilience assessment https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/risa.12991#:~:text=2.-,KEY%20FEATURES%20OF%20A%20TIERED%20FRAMEWORK%20FOR%20RESILIENCE%20ASSESSMENT,with%20activities%20that%20reduce%20risk.

Register in advance for this meeting:

https://usda-oce.zoomgov.com/meeting/register/vJItdOispj8iEj2_RWwOe47Hnq56dGvWd8g