Mission:

--To be a responsible advocate for USDA Economists within the U.S. Department of

Agriculture, the metro Washington Community, the agricultural economics profession, and society at large---

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A newsletter of the USDA Economists Group for professionals who use economics in carrying out their daily activities.

Visit our website at http://www.pmax.com/newusda/usdaecon.html.

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Vol. 7, No. 4 December, 2000

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Message from the President

by Jerry Hammond

As your outgoing president, I am excited about the things the Group has accomplished during the past several years in helping shape the role of economics in USDA. The Group has offered me many opportunities including, networking, social interaction, sense of purpose and belonging, participation, camaraderie, professionalism, and shared vision. I appreciated the opportunity to serve you and the economics profession in this very "unusual" leadership position.

I would like to thank the Board and members of the USDA Economists Group for all the help and assistance they have provided me during the years that I have been President. My special appreciation goes to Bill Crosswhite, who has served as our Executive Vice President, for the many things he has done to support me, as well as the Group. I also appreciative the funding we have received from the Farm Foundation, the Kellogg Foundation, EPA and the numerous USDA agencies--without such support our accomplishments would have been extremely limited.

The Group has had many successes, including monthly meetings featuring noted speakers, major workshops, a symposium held at the AAEA annual meeting, an outstanding Issues 2000 Seminar Series, and recognizing outstanding economists through our "USDA Economist of the Year" and "Fred Woods Public Policy Award." Our annual Holiday Party has become a wonderful tradition where we celebrate our accomplishments for the past year, announce our award winners, including the President's Citations, and present the new leadership for the coming year.

Everything that we have done during the past several years contributes to the vision that I articulated in my first "Message from the President" to the Group. I stated that "my vision for the USDA Economists Group is that the work we do, our analyses, information and data, will be used by our customers in making informed decisions that take into account efficiency, equity and opportunity cost."

I still feel that we should continue the attempt to integrate economics into the missions and decision-making processes of the various USDA agencies. In order to make this possible, we need to be professionals and to simplify our terminology and communicate in the language of our customers, leaders and other decision-makers." Our mission and vision go a long way in supporting the integration of economics.

There are many things to be done if we are to continue our success into the future. I firmly believe that we need to:

_ expand our membership and discover or identify ways to work with other associations;

_ involve all members in the process, there is room for everyone to participate;

_ listen to other’s ideas and opinions and be willing to change our own;

_ take action and not be complacent about our role as economists;

_ be aware of and care about other’s feelings;

_ do the right thing whether it is popular or not; and

_ lead by example.

Our group is small and our cause is large. Please help the new leadership with the assistance they will need in order for the Group to continue "to be a responsible advocate for USDA Economists within the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Washington Community, the agricultural economics profession, and society at large."

1999 Awards Winners

At the USDA Economists Group 1999 Holiday Party, Alex Barbarika (FSA), was honored as AUSDA Economist of the Year@ Peter Smith (NRCS) was the recipient of the AFred Wood Public Policy Award@. In addition, Gene Wunderlich and Walt Armbruster (The Farm Foundation) were recognized for their leadership and contributions to the USDA Economists Group.

Wanted: USDA Agency Contact Persons for 2001

by Phil Spinelli - Membership Vice-President

As your Group=s Vice President for Membership in 2001, I would like to revive the idea of having a small, dedicated group of Agency Contact People who will try to post meeting reminders, provide information on request to members and non-members, and other assorted activities as they arise. This role requires very little time, no training, and provides that indispensible Apersonal touch@ that is all important in a vibrant, healthy organization. In addition, professional networking has many personal and career benefits. So, please contact me if you would like to serve in this capacity for your agency this year. The names of agency contacts will be posted in the newsletter and webpages so that you can be easily accessible.

In addition, I would like to remind members who may not have paid their annual membership dues ($12) for the year 2001 to please contact Alex Barbarika or myself (phone: 202-690-4164) so that you can continue to contribute financially to your Group and I can update the Membership List. The marginal product on this amount is huge when one considers all the benefits that members enjoy and all the activities that it supports. Let=s make 2001 another memorable year for membership and great programs.

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************************* Issues 2001 Seminar Series *************************

In early 2001, the USDA Economist Group has planned and scheduled a series of 3 half-day seminars featuring noted experts in the field dealing with timely, important, policy-oriented topics of interest to agricultural economists and allied sciences. These high caliber, cutting-edge seminars, focusing on the most current information and developments on each subject, are free to all USDA Economist Group members. So please review the topics; watch for future announcements with specifics about dates, times, and places; mark your calendars; and attend the seminars (invite a colleague or two) of interest to you.

Each of the issues selected for the Issues 2001 Seminar Series have significant economic implications for the food and agricultural sector, the local and U.S. economy, and in some cases, the global economy. Yet the voice of economics is often not clearly heard or recognized in the discussions or debate on these issues. The program of half-day seminars, co-sponsored and coordinated by the USDA Economists Group, C-FARE, and USDA agencies provides an opportunity for leading experts from the agricultural economics profession; policy makers and analysts from the executive and legislative branches of government; plus public and industry advocates to discuss the economic issues associated with these topics.

SEMINAR TOPICS

2001 seminars planned are:

Industrialization in Agriculture

Gerald L. Grinnell, Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration

This session examines the significant factors that have led to structural changes in agriculture, agribusiness, and rural economies. We will review the impacts of these forces on current and future government programs plus changes in agribusiness industries and the pressures both face. The impacts on rural communities, both present and future, will be reviewed. Finally, we will identify major changes that have occurred in farming and discuss pressures for change in the future. The need for greater involvement by economists is clear and opportunities in program implementation, policy analysis, research, inter-disciplinary and inter-agency cooperation, and partnering between business and government will be highlighted.

Biotechnology and Trade

Mary Bohman, Economic Research Service (ERS)

Both government policies and consumer attitudes have been cited as causes of disputes over international trade in GMO commodities, particularly between the European Union (EU) and the U.S. Other countries are considering labeling policies that may affect the demand for U.S. farm exports. Likely outpacing any impact of government regulations, consumer attitudes and preferences have an evolving impact on U.S. and foreign demand for biotechnology products. Economists can aid in defining the issues and analyzing the impacts of public policies. Assessing the impact of GMOs on world grain markets requires an understanding of the economics of adoption of new technology and markets for differentiated products. The seminar discussion will also identify potential roles for governments in resolving trade disputes by analyzing the costs, benefits, and distribu-tional impacts of alternative policies such as labeling and harmonization of regulations.

Food Safety

Ronald L. Meekhof, FSIS

A number of outbreaks of microbial food contamination in recent years have elevated consumer demand for food safety. Federal food policy has expanded in scope--from farm to table, and shifted to more flexible performance-based approaches, placing greater responsibility for food safety on food establishments. As a result, the structure of the meat, poultry, egg products, and fruit and vegetable processing sectors has changed dramatically as firms adapt new technologies for achieving government food safety standards. The demand for food safety has also resulted in new technologies in on-farm production methods. Economists can improve the food policy debate by identifying the consequences of policies based HACCP principles and performance standards and other more market-oriented approaches. The seminar will also fully explore the long-term economic and policy implications of a farm-to-table approach to food safety.

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The 2001 seminar series compliments the USDA Economists Group's three well-received 2000 seminars. These 3 seminars were as follows:

Dealing with Animal Waste: The Role of Economic Analysis - was the first in the 2000 seminar series and was organized by Skip Hyberg, Natural Resources Conservation Service

This seminar was held on March 22, 2000 at USDA=s Economic Research Service (ERS), Waugh Auditorium , 1800 M Street, NW; Washington, D.C. For further information on this seminar contact Skip Hyberg by e-mail at Bengt.Hyberg@usda.gov. or phone (202) 720-1864.

Risk Management organized by Joe Glauber, Office of Chief Economist, USDA - was the second seminar in the 2000 series.

This seminar was held on Sept. 20- 21, 2000 at USDA=s Economic Research Service (ERS), Waugh Auditorium , 1800 M Street, NW; Washington, D.C. For further information on this seminar contact Jerry Hammond by e-mail at JHammond@usda.gov. or phone (202) 720-1864.

Economics of Agricultural Research organized by Fen Hunt (NRCS) was the third in the series.

This seminar was held on Oct. 24, 2000 in the Carver Building at the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center. A tour of the research facilities was held in the afternoon. For further information on this seminar please contact Fen Hunt (NRCS) by e-mail at FCH@ars.usda.gov or phone 301-504-4787.

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National Economic News (U.S. largest economy in the world)

_ U.S. economy - shows signs of weakness after 9 year recession-free period. New car sales declined by 2.2% in November, employee lay-offs were announced at 2 large industrial manufacturers, and consumer spending (which represents 2/3rds of national economic activity) has slowed.

_ Pre-Holiday Shopping - early holiday sales fell .4% to $271 billion in November. This is a period in which many merchants traditionally do as much as half their annual business.

_ Energy Costs - Natural Gas prices to soar this Winter because of cold weather, utility deregulation in some states, and tight supplies. A typical U.S. family can expect to pay a record $834, up 62% from last year, to heat their home. Comparable data for home heating oil is $1,044, up 38%.

_ Mortgage Rates - lowest since July, 1999. A 30-year mortgage averaged 7.84%, 15 year mortgage 7.45%, and an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) 6.45%.

_ Stock Markets - Dow Industrials around 10,400 while NASDQ (high technology) in 2,600 point range.

Federal Employees

- Federal Pay Raise - 3.7% raise for 1.8 million federal government civilian workers effective early January, 2001.

- Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) - investment rates of return for Nov., 2000: -7.87% in C-fund (stocks), 1.65% in F-fund (bonds), and 0.48% in G-fund (Treasury securities). For the12 month period of Nov. 1999 through Nov. 2000, the annual rate of return was -4.25% in C-fund, 9.13% in F-fund, and 6.48% in G-fund. This contrasts with 1999 in which the annual rate of return was 18.21%, 7.69%, and 7.05% in the C, F, and G funds, respectively. There are 2.3 million TSP accounts.

Farm Economic News

_ Farm Export Groups - 25 farm organizations that promote U.S. exports (everything from meat, sheep, and soybeans to mohair) received $33.5 million from USDA under the Foreign Market Development Program. The recipients agreed to focus on reducing market barriers, modifying restrictive regulatory codes, and identify new markets.

_ First Plant Gene Map - scientist recently completed the first DNA blueprint of a plant. The plant, arabidopsis thaliana, is a relative of cabbage. Scientists claim information learned can be applied to rice, wheat, corn, and other human food plants. So far genetic blueprints for 600 viruses; 37 bacteria; 1 fungus, worm, fruit fly, and human have been decoded.

Upcoming Events

Allied Social Science Associations (ASSA) - annual meeting, at the Marriott- Regent, New Orleans, LA, Jan. 5-6, 2001.

Southern Assoc. of Agricultural Scientists (SAAS) - 98th annual meeting in Fort Worth, TX, Jan. 27-31, 2001.

Am. Assoc. for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) - annual meeting in San Francisco, CA, Feb. 15-20, 2001.

Announcements

American Agricultural Economics Association (AAEA) - submissions for selected papers, posters, organized symposia, and free session proposals due Jan. 15. E-mail 1 page nomination to aaea.org.

Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Assoc. (NAREA) call for selected papers and symposia. Two page abstract due Feb. 15. E-mail submission to Lyndon Goodrich Dawn, Univ. of New Hampshire at lyndon.goodridge@unh.edu.

 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ENTERTAINMENT WITTICISMS HUMOR GAMES JOKES QUOTES

Deep Thoughts (compliments of funny-bone.org)

Why do they put pictures of criminals up in the Post Office? What are we supposed to do¼.write to these law breakers? Why don't they just put their pictures on postage stamps so that the mail carriers can look for them while delivering the mail?

Ever noticed how mothers feed their babies with tiny spoons and forks? Wonder what Oriental mothers use? Toothpicks?

Ever wonder what the speed of lightning would be if it didn't zigzag?

You know you're a USDA Economist if:

10 You really get excited about a 3% pay raise.

20 You sit in a cubicle or office smaller than your bedroom closet.

30 Dilbert cartoons decorate your workspace.

40 You're already late on the assignment you just got.

50 Your supervisor's favorite lines are "when you get a few minutes", "in your spare time", "when your freed up", and "I have an opportunity for you".

 

Math Quotes

"Math illiteracy strikes 8 out of 5 people"

"A lottery is a tax on people who are bad at math"

"According to my calculations, this problem doesn't exist"

"Alcohol and calculus don't mix. Never drink and derive."

New Years Resolutions

Resolution #1

1993: I will read at least 10 AAEA journal articles a year.

1994: I will read at least 5 AAEA journal articles a year.

1995: I will read at least 1 AAEA journal article a year plus every issue of "Choices".

1996: I will try to read at least one article in an issue of "Choices" this year.

1997: I will try to read the financial section of the newspaper every day.

1998: I will keep abreast of the activity of the stock market this year

1999: I will try to check the daily quotes on my dot.com, high tech, and precious metal stocks this year.

2000: I will try to avoid bankruptcy in 2001.

Resolution #2

1994: I will get my weight down below 180 pounds.

1995: I will watch my calories until I get below 190.

1996: I will follow my new diet religiously until I get below 200.

1997: I will try to develop a realistic attitude about my weight.

1998: I will work out 5 days a week.

1999: I will work out 3 days a week.

2000: I will try to drive past a gym at least once a week.

Resolution #3:

1994: I will not spend my money frivolously.

1995: I will pay off my credit card debt promptly.

1996: I will pay off my credit card debt promptly.

1997: I will begin making a strong effort to be out of debt by 2000.

1998: I will be totally out of debt by 2001.

1999: I will try to pay off the debt interest by 2001.

2000: I will try to avoid bankruptcy in 2001.

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Membership

If you=re an economist, or a professional in a related a discipline, either working for or retired from USDA (or a sister agency), then please consider joining or renewing your membership in the USDA Economists Group. For only $12 per year individuals are entitled to membership in a prestigious, professional organization; receive periodic newsletters reporting information of interest to USDA economists; and are eligible to attend guest lectures, seminars, and workshops sponsored by the Group.

Benefits of Membership:

Newsletter - USDA ECONOMIST

Monthly USDA Economists Group Meetings

Electronic Communication/Info Service

Stimulating and Informative Speakers

Recognition and Awards

All USDA Economist Group members are encouraged to submit Annual Membership Dues to Treasurer Alex Barbarika. Please complete the Application and Renewal so we can update our records. Be sure to include E-mail address.and include a $12 checks payable to AUSDA Economists Group@.

USDA Economist Group Membership Application and Renewal Form

Check Membership type:

Full (current USDA employees) Associate (all others)______

Name:_______________________________________________________________

Title:________________________________________________________________

Agency/Organization:___________________________________________________

Fax:_________________________________________________________________

E-mail/Internet Address:_________________________________________________

Referred by:___________________________________________________________

Both new applicants and renewals are asked to return this form and $12 annual dues to:

Alex Barbarika

USDA, Room 3728

Phone: (202) 720-7093 E-mail: Alexander.Barbarika@usda.gov

Please make checks payable to AUSDA Economists Group@.

Don West,

Your questions or comments are welcome by any of the USDA Economists Group members or executive board officers.

The USDA Economists Group Web site is located at:www.pmax.com/newsusda/ usdaecon.html. Any ideas, comments, or observations to improve the usefulness of the site would be greatly appreciated. Contact any board member with you suggestions.

A list server is available to facilitate communication among USDA economists and members of the USDA Economists group. You can post announcements about policy issues, funding opportunities and proposals, job announcements, upcoming events, recent publications, and other relevant activities. To subscribe, send a message to: majordomo@reeusda.gov. Leave the subject line blank. In the message box type: subscribe usdaecon and your e-mail address. To post a message or announcement on USDAECON, simply send your message to: usdaecon@reeusda.gov.

Please direct all comments about AUSDA Economist Newsletter@ December 2000 issue to Ken Krupa, newsletter editor at Kkrupa@ERS.USDA.gov.

USDA Economists Group Board 2000

Jerry Hammond, President NRCS 202-720-5337 Jerry.Hammond@usda.gov

Fen Hunt, VP- Programs NRCS 301-504-4787 FCH@ars.usda.gov

Don West, Chief Financial CSREES 202-720-5633 dwest@ree.usda.gov

Officer (Treasurer)

Ken Krupa, VP- Communication (Newsletter) ERS 202-694-5521 kkrupa@ers.usda.gov

Felix Spinelli, VP - Membership FRIS 202-690-4164 Felix.Spinelli@dchqexs1.hqnet.usda.gov

Heather Page, Member-At-Large FAS 202-720-0761 PageH@usda.gov

Henry Bahn, Past President CSREE 202-720-5280 hbahn@reeusda.gov

Ron Meekhof, Past President FSIS 202-720-6604 Ronald.Meekhof@usda.gov

Parveen Setia, Past President CR 202-720-7321 Parveen.Setia@usda.gov

William Crosswhite, Exec. VP EPA 202-260-6804 Crosswhite.William@epa.gov